Flopped set against a large raise.

herschelw · February 23rd, 2008, 01:12 AM

Our opponent is a regular in the 400NL games who we have 5500 hands on. He's running a 15/10. His fold to Cbet% is around 70% and he has a very low raise Cbet%. He's very good and solid in every respect. What can we range him to at this point?

FullTiltPoker Game #5352041394: Table Euclid - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em - 3:55:11 ET - 2008/02/22
Seat 1: Toby Won Kenobi ($565)
Seat 2: chislodc ($436.40)
Seat 3: lumpster02 ($431.60)
Seat 4: BoomerangPoker ($574.20)
Seat 5: apparatchik ($785.70)
Seat 6: ScolaBear ($400)
Seat 7: NoNames99 ($86)
Seat 8: 2LiveOnes ($140.30)
Seat 9: herschelw ($436.70)
BoomerangPoker posts the small blind of $2
apparatchik posts the big blind of $4
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to herschelw [5d 5h]
ScolaBear folds
NoNames99 folds
2LiveOnes folds
herschelw raises to $14
Toby Won Kenobi calls $14
chislodc calls $14
lumpster02 folds
BoomerangPoker folds
apparatchik calls $10
*** FLOP *** [Qs 5c 9s]
apparatchik checks
herschelw has 15 seconds left to act
herschelw bets $34
Toby Won Kenobi raises to $120
chislodc folds
apparatchik folds
herschelw has 15 seconds left to act
herschelw has requested TIME

rmthawk64 · February 23rd, 2008, 02:50 AM

AQ? any chance he flats AA/KK behind?

herschelw · February 23rd, 2008, 02:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rmthawk64

AQ? any chance he flats AA/KK behind?

almost no chance he flats AA, KK QQ behind.

terrellk11 · February 23rd, 2008, 03:24 AM

AQ is a possibility, but I've played Toby before and know even without looking at my notes he would 100% repop QQ to AA here preflop.

99 is the obvious danger here as he would flat that preflop.

AQ is possible but he's a pretty good regular and commiting that much of his stack with nothing more than top/top seems a bit unusual unless you've been out of line at the table.

The board is fairly draw-heavy, so it could be some combination of a draw plus overs here. He's likely repop AKss preflop but it can't be ruled out. AJ/ATss and TJss are both possibilities. KJ/KTss is possible but less likely as he wouldn't often call that preflop.

rounder2413 · February 23rd, 2008, 03:34 AM

Combo draws for sure, AQ is possible, and 99. You have to 3 bet here 100% of the time.

TClermont · February 23rd, 2008, 07:05 AM

I think the board being coordinated increases his range enough to 3bet. If it were Q95 rainbow... I might be more passive... maybe flat and reevaluate on turn.

herschelw · February 23rd, 2008, 09:47 AM

Now what??????

herschelw calls $86
*** TURN *** [Qs 5c 9s] [Td]
herschelw checks
Toby Won Kenobi bets $431, and is all in

threeouts · February 23rd, 2008, 12:27 PM

He's good??? I'm scurred here AXs KJs ......99 seems like an odd bet now as the draw seems to be completed.

ratsauce89 · February 23rd, 2008, 01:33 PM

seems like a pretty ez call with spades not getting there on the turn. should 3ball the flop imo

ratsauce89 · February 23rd, 2008, 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by threeouts

He's good??? I'm scurred here AXs KJs ......99 seems like an odd bet now as the draw seems to be completed.

basically his only play here is to shove, its not an odd bet

ratsauce89 · February 23rd, 2008, 01:34 PM

another question i have is, what are you running at? whats your vpip this session and overall?

rounder2413 · February 23rd, 2008, 04:04 PM

Argh. I'm honestly not sure why you flatted OTF. What was for plan for OTT? Why flat OTF, just doesn't make any sense to me. Now that you're in this spot, I probably puke and fold.

threeouts · February 23rd, 2008, 06:24 PM

Errr mis-read the post thought the T on the turn was Ts.... 99 shoving doesn't seem all that odd now

Quote:

Originally Posted by threeouts

He's good??? I'm scurred here AXs KJs ......99 seems like an odd bet now as the draw seems to be completed.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ratsauce89

basically his only play here is to shove, its not an odd bet

rounder2413 · February 23rd, 2008, 07:20 PM

99 is exactly what it looks like right now.

terrellk11 · February 23rd, 2008, 09:12 PM

Toby's too good to be shoving something stupid here and not good enough to be doing this as a play at you.

Fold.

mutigers5591 · February 23rd, 2008, 09:45 PM

i dont play as much cash as i used to and it is alot more complex then my sngs but i think villain is probably pushing some sort of combodraw or pair/bigdraw something a large percentage of the time...i dont think i would fold

herschelw · February 23rd, 2008, 10:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ratsauce89

another question i have is, what are you running at? whats your vpip this session and overall?

running 13 to 15 VPIP, 8pfr

TClermont · February 24th, 2008, 12:12 AM

I'd still think you were good more often then not. Yes, 99 is possible, and a very solid part of his range, but your hand is very well disguised. You raised preflop.... what if he puts you on an overpair after the flop and knows you're good enough to lay it down if he plays for stacks? Wouldn't any pair + combo draw suddenly become +ev to shove there? He's not letting the action get multiway behind him with QQ.

He could have Ax (AK all the way down to A5) suited, KJ suited, 99... ugh rough range. Is he the "free turn card" type? Raising flush draws in position to see the river if he misses? If so, 78 sooted suddenly becomes a possibility...shoving the huge draw into u. I hate the flat call on that flop... but the turn seems to be a brick. I think i shove here 90% of the time and if he has 99, so be it.

ratsauce89 · February 24th, 2008, 09:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by herschelw

running 13 to 15 VPIP, 8pfr

play tighter imo

gilbert0334 · February 24th, 2008, 02:20 PM

Jerry, just tell us what you had/What he had, it's killing all of us!