[Razz] Is this the best line? (Post 6th Only, Please)

[Sidnoobis]

Really only interested in comments post-6th. I should have folded on 3rd. Also fourth and fifth. The hand becomes interesting on 6th imo.

Razz ($2/$4), Ante $0.25, Bring-In $1 (converter)

3rd Street - (1.00 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx J___folds
Seat 2: xx xx Q___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 4___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 7___calls
Hero: A 6 K___brings-in___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 7___raises
Seat 7: xx xx A___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 8___folds

4th Street - (4.00 SB)

Seat 4: xx xx 7 3___bets
Hero: A 6 K 2___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 7 Q___folds

5th Street - (3.00 BB)

Seat 4: xx xx 7 3 Q___bets
Hero: A 6 K 2 T___calls

6th Street - (5.00 BB)

Seat 4: xx xx 7 3 Q J___bets___calls
Hero: A 6 K 2 T 6___raises

River - (9.00 BB)

Seat 4: xx xx 7 3 Q J xx___checks
Hero: A 6 K 2 T 6 9___checks

Total pot: (9.00 BB)

The chances of me improving to a T low are: 3 3s, 3 4s, 4 5s, 2 7s, 2 8s, and 4 9s. There are 33 cards left in the deck, and 18 of them help me. I am 54% to improve to a ten-low.

The chances of him improving to a 9 low are: 3 2s, 3 4s, 4 5s, 2 6s, and 4 9s: 16/33, or 48%.

The chances of us both not improving are ~24% (.52x.46).
The chances of me improving and him not improving are ~28%.
The chances of us both improving are ~26%.
The chances of him improving and me bricking are ~22%.

So, by just calling, I'm calling 1BB at a 6BB pot, getting 1:6 on my money with 27% equity in the pot, which is def. +EV. However, by raising, I believe he'll fold to a bet the 24% of times we both don't improve.

Temporarily ignoring any money that goes in on 7th.

Calling 6th gives me 28% equity in a 7BB pot, or 1.96BB at the cost of 1BB. Calling 6th has an expectation of +0.96BB (ignoring 7th, which is bad, but I'm going to do it anyways because I'm lazy).

Raising 6th gives me 52% equity in a 9BB pot, or 4.68BB at the cost of 2BB. Raising 6th has an expectation of +2.68BB. This assumes he always folds unimproved, which is not an unreasonable assumption. I think my raise also gets me a free showdown in the case that we both improve.

So my line looks like this: Raise 6th. If improved, check behind. If unimproved, bet. I think this is an unusual enough spot that I don't have to worry about balancing my range in this spot. After the raise on 6th, I win a 9BB pot when he does not improve (52%). I lose an 11BB pot when he does improve (48%).

So: 48%: -2BB
52%: +7BB

= 3.64 - 0.96 = 2.68BB

If I call 6th, I believe he leads 7th 100% of the time. I will only call when I improve. So, 28% of the time I win a 9BB pot and 26% of the time I lose a 9BB pot. The other 46% of the time I fold.

So: 28%: +7BB
26%: -2BB
46%: -1BB

= .28x7-.26*2-.46*1 = 1.96 - 0.5 - 0.46 = 1BB

Thus, the difference between the two lines is ~1.68BB.

Can I get some feedback on this analysis? This actually seems to say that raising 6th is the best play by a wide, wide margin. It also seems that both lines lose money in the long run, but nowhere near as much as simply folding, as I have way too much equity in the pot for a fold here, and that raising 6th is the best way to maximize my equity at this point in the hand.

[BrandonPL]

Cant read all this right now but I will make a post about it later.

First thing though I NEVER EVER EVER EVER EVER play a face card against a low card in Razz. It's just not profitable at all. ESPECIALLY when he raises as first to act with legit low cards behind him.

[TurnRiva]

3rd Street - (1.00 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx J___folds
Seat 2: xx xx Q___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 4___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 7___calls
Hero: A 6 K___brings-in___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 7___raises
Seat 7: xx xx A___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 8___folds

4th Street - (4.00 SB)

Seat 4: xx xx 7 3___bets
Hero: A 6 K 2___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 7 Q___folds

5th Street - (3.00 BB)

Seat 4: xx xx 7 3 Q___bets
Hero: A 6 K 2 T___calls


I've already mucked that hand three times...

From there, you are simply only improving to a 10 high, or the 6th street card in itself.. I mean once you're on 6th you are basically committed, running out door, so cant do the numbers, but I dont like getting in the situation in the first place, Razz is a game generally defined by fourth imo... Will come back later and add on..

[mbendner]

Originally Posted by BrandonPL

Cant read all this right now but I will make a post about it later.

First thing though I NEVER EVER EVER EVER EVER play a face card against a low card in Razz. It's just not profitable at all. ESPECIALLY when he raises as first to act with legit low cards behind him.

Yeah.. notwithstanding the rest of the hand... FOLD BEFORE YOU GET STARTED!

[Sidnoobis]

Yeah, really really not interested in early analysis, I'm aware that it's butchered up to 6th, I'm just wondering about lines once you've hit 6th.

[doctavius]

i like the raise!! wow the math is crazy!!! sick math there...........to me the raise feels correct.........raising in stud games is usually a good play when your hand isnt so strong to see free cards....unless your up against a monster of course.

[Sidnoobis]

Originally Posted by BrandonPL

Cant read all this right now but I will make a post about it later.

First thing though I NEVER EVER EVER EVER EVER play a face card against a low card in Razz.

I am, so far, entirely unconvinced that this is the case in 2/4 Stars. I don't have a huge sample size (~1300 hands where I have a 2-card 8b down and T+ up) but I'm losing on average 0.09BB/hand when these conditions are met. Were I to simply fold my bring-in every time, I'd be losing ~0.32BB/hand.

It may be [ ] sample size, but there are plenty of specific players in these games who like to steal and against whom I believe I can profitably defend my bring in. I believe that it's worth losing ~0.2SB and BB on some of the early streets by calling with 40%+ equity when these players allow me to put in an extra bet at 100% expectation on 7th on a regular basis.

[guyfox]

Personally, that hand would have been mucked at the start. But going ahead as it looked like your hand was improving vs his going down to 6th street here is what I think.

I think it was a very nice raise to give yourself a free card at the end (and possibly take the pot) because in his eyes you could have had a 10 low made already in his eyes so he slows down and peels the last card hoping to redraw. The only problem with the raise is that your already pretty far behind and that bluff or a miracle is the only thing going to help you.

Seat 4: xx xx 7 3 Q J___bets___calls
Hero: A 6 K 2 T 6___raises

He rose the action right from the start with a A and an 8 to act in front of him which tells me he had 2 cards under a 7 or possibly something like 578 whatever, you understand the range.

At this point you have a King low and he has a Jack low. If you miss your beat obv, but your only drawing to a 10 low here. He's also on a re-draw in case you catch to get even lower (most likely 7 or 8 range).

You did alot of math behind this hand but overall I think this was a losing proposition for you from top to bottom.

[Sidnoobis]

Guy: You would advocate folding? I have nearly 30% equity in the pot. A call at this point is mandatory, dictated by pot odds.

If the pot was empty, this would be a muck all day every day. It's not. The raise, although it puts more money in the pot while I'm behind, actually gives me more equity in the pot because I believe he folds an unimproved hand (which beats me if I don't improve).

[guyfox]

Ah my mistake I read it wrong, I thought you called a raise from a position different then the bring in (posted this after waking up ), my mistake. Everything else I said after the fact is spot on in my eyes though.

[Sidnoobis]

Originally Posted by guyfox

Ah my mistake I read it wrong, I thought you called a raise from a position different then the bring in (posted this after waking up ), my mistake. Everything else I said after the fact is spot on in my eyes though.

Talking about 6th, you made it sound like you wanted to fold 6th.

[eppy12588]

I only like the raise on 6th street if you check if you hit like you did or bet if you miss

[Sidnoobis]

Originally Posted by eppy12588

I only like the raise on 6th street if you check if you hit like you did or bet if you miss

That was the plan.

[sevencard2003]

i think u played the hand wrong all the way. im not really a fan of the raise, u really dont know what he will do on 7th, bet out or try to check raise, maybe even attempt a bluff. i posted a razz strategy article in this forum. perhaps u might like it. i found it on 2+2. anyway u told me u like to play razz HU sngs, maybe thats why ur strategy is a little more unorthodox, people in them usually make different plays at heads up.be aware you must play a full table a lot tighter than a hu game.

[Sidnoobis]

Please don't link me to articles from listening. i beat her like a redheaded stepchild whenever we play. Like I said, my plan is to raise 6th and b/f if unimproved, and to call or check behind when improved. The raise gives me an additional ~20% equity in the pot. I don't play HU Razz SnGs, I play pure cash razz.

Thank you for the advice about how to play full ring razz.

Since you read strat forums and are banned from SO, I'm going to repost this prop bet here:

TBC: I want to play a semi-significant sample of hands of HU razz against you in some sort of a prop bet.

2k - 5k hands to eliminate the "it's all luck" portion of HU razz (lol), any limit you want (although preferably within your BR limitations (lol BR management)) . I'd be willing to make a side bet that I beat you for at least, oh, let's call it 3BB/100.

If I don't beat you for 3BB/100, I'll pay you... some amount of money. How much would you be willing to put down as a bet on these terms? I'll take anything up to ~$200. Pick the number of hands and pick the amount and let's get started imo tbh irl.

[sevencard2003]

do u know how many hours id have to waste to play u even 2000 hands of razz HU? say we both started with $50 on the table in a 25c-50c HU razz table. do u know how bad the rake would eat us alive? at the end of the 2000 hands i might have $30 left and u have $15 left, yeah id have beaten u badly but wed both be heavy losers due to the rake. thats why people who are smart play only sngs hu and not cash to eliminate losing to the rake.

[Sidnoobis]

All I hear is "I'm afraid"