$400NL FR. Thoughts on my river options after his raise

[BrandonPL]

He was running a 38/18 over only like 100 hands. I had seen him over bet the river twice already (once betting $300 into a $40 pot) but I haven't seen his hands either time.

Full Tilt Poker Game #6027935296: Table Spruce Fern - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em - 1:31:51 ET - 2008/04/14
Seat 1: DoctorZcali ($2,232.10)
Seat 2: augustwest11 ($248)
Seat 3: billycon ($389.50)
Seat 4: BrandonPL ($522.40)
Seat 5: ibsurfinweb ($216)
Seat 6: Dino21Might ($470)
Seat 7: apparatchik ($411)
Seat 8: bmb013 ($410)
Seat 9: Tx_WaterBoy ($163.40)
apparatchik posts the small blind of $2
bmb013 posts the big blind of $4
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BrandonPL [6d 6s]
Tx_WaterBoy folds
DoctorZcali has 15 seconds left to act
DoctorZcali calls $4
augustwest11 folds
billycon folds
BrandonPL calls $4
ibsurfinweb folds
Dino21Might folds
apparatchik calls $2
bmb013 checks
*** FLOP *** [Ac 6h 4d]
apparatchik checks
bmb013 checks
DoctorZcali checks
BrandonPL has 15 seconds left to act
BrandonPL bets $10
apparatchik folds
bmb013 folds
DoctorZcali has 15 seconds left to act
DoctorZcali calls $10
*** TURN *** [Ac 6h 4d] [5h]
DoctorZcali checks
BrandonPL has 15 seconds left to act
BrandonPL bets $25
DoctorZcali calls $25
*** RIVER *** [Ac 6h 4d 5h] [Ah]
DoctorZcali checks
BrandonPL has 15 seconds left to act
BrandonPL bets $67
DoctorZcali raises to $248
BrandonPL ???????

[DaCus3]

Okay, my thoughts, and mb im wrong (im not exactly a great NLHE online cash player) id almost certainly ship it on him here.... the check calling kinda gives it away to me... imo i think he would raise the turn with 2 pair on a wicked heavy draw board, and an unraised pot. so in my eyes he either hits trips or backdoored something ****ty, esp if he is playing 40% of the hands, id assume he is mixing it up with a wide range of hands...i just really dont see you being beat here.

[DaCus3]

can u pm me the result, im curious now, but dont wanna ruin it for others... its def an interesting spot

[mburke05]

is he prone to 3betting pre? does he limp often?

i think he sees your flop bet as a weak cbet, and his range is huge. A4 is possible, but unlikely, given that he only calls the turn bet with the four flush out. i think 44, 55 are the most likely culprits here, and very low % you're getting called with something like AJ/AT. A5/A4 just does not look likely enough for this line to not snapshove.

he could put your line as a three-barrel with air or something, and in that case reraising his KQh/78h/AJ might not be a bad play? i again, think 44 and 55 are the most likely hands youll see when you shove and get called.

[WotaWaster]

Pretty interesting. Default here would be to call for me, given this guys stats and betting habits so far I have to put it in since he's never folding a flush or even bare ace. Someone playing 40% of hands with a 6 buy in stack is not afraid to chase backdoor draws and chuck his money about. If he has you its a cooler.

I also would put him on 44. I wouldn't be surprised to see A6/A4 but think you lose too much value against a guy this loose by not pushing river.

[WotaWaster]

Originally Posted by mburke05

he could put your line as a three-barrel with air or something, and in that case reraising his KQh/78h/AJ might not be a bad play?

I think this would be fundementally a very bad play. Even if Brandon is bluffing 95% of the time here but will never, ever call a check-raise with less than a full house you would be making a mistake by raising the river with those hands you named.

I am sure the guy in question doesn't realise this and may well check raise any of those hands and that's why I think we have to push.

[Lick496]

id put him in

[DaCus3]

Originally Posted by mburke05

is he prone to 3betting pre? does he limp often?

i think he sees your flop bet as a weak cbet, and his range is huge. A4 is possible, but unlikely, given that he only calls the turn bet with the four flush out. i think 44, 55 are the most likely culprits here, and very low % you're getting called with something like AJ/AT. A5/A4 just does not look likely enough for this line to not snapshove.

he could put your line as a three-barrel with air or something, and in that case reraising his KQh/78h/AJ might not be a bad play? i again, think 44 and 55 are the most likely hands youll see when you shove and get called.

no way its an underset, chips woulda got in alot quicker.

[D.E Million]

I put him on ace with a big kicker here i think he would have check raised the turn with aces up or a set and also there no reason for him to think he doesnt have you really if he doesx have a big ace Id almost be shocked if he flipped over aces full, my guess is ace ten or higher and really should have been more careful...................d.e

[WotaWaster]

You guys may not have enough experience playing donks.
Betting $300 into $50 as a bluff but then check-calling a set all the way until the river and stacking off with no full house when a flush/straight is possible is standard.

[valueshove]

I'm shoving 100% of the time and really happy about it. Of course I'd expect him to raise 55/44 somewhere but he would have raised 2p aswell. He may have some straight or hit a backdoor fd aswell, although Ax is obviously his most likely holding. If you're beat here it's definitely a cooler & standard aswell imo

[BrandonPL]

Originally Posted by D.E Million

I put him on ace with a big kicker here i think he would have check raised the turn with aces up or a set and also there no reason for him to think he doesnt have you really if he doesx have a big ace Id almost be shocked if he flipped over aces full, my guess is ace ten or higher and really should have been more careful...................d.e

He raises preflop half of the time he plays a hand. Don't you think he would most likely raise preflop with a hand thats AT or higher?

[scaphism2]

I'm shoving here:

Hand range expectation for me approximates to:

Hands he could have to win here:

A/A: 1% of the time. (There's a reasonable number of sneaky limpers, but they don't PFR 50%).

A/4, A/5, A/6: All of these are actually possible, but I just don't see him not popping you on the turn to defend his two pair with on a pretty well-coordinated board. Let's be super cautious and put this at 25%.

Hands that lose:

Random pair. Unlikely given he called two streets and then c/r'd the last. <1%.
Smaller set A very likely holding if he's trying to trap you with a smaller set here, this makes a ton of sense given his betting action to put him on 4/4.

Garbage that gutshotted a straight or backdoored a flush, also a possibility considering he called twice then popped the river, might indicate the flush got there.

My read here is probably a worse set, or possibly utter junk that completed some bizaare backdoor draw.

I think you lose here <25% of the time. AA seems very unlikely from someone with 50% PFR and I don't see two pair not popping you on the turn to defend vs kickers/straight/flush possibilities. You beat all other hands, I'd predict he has a set here.

[BrandonPL]

Originally Posted by scaphism2

I'm shoving here:

Hand range expectation for me approximates to:

Hands he could have to win here:

A/A: 1% of the time. (There's a reasonable number of sneaky limpers, but they don't PFR 50%).

A/4, A/5, A/6: All of these are actually possible, but I just don't see him not popping you on the turn to defend his two pair with on a pretty well-coordinated board. Let's be super cautious and put this at 25%.

Hands that lose:

Random pair. Unlikely given he called two streets and then c/r'd the last. <1%.
Smaller set A very likely holding if he's trying to trap you with a smaller set here, this makes a ton of sense given his betting action to put him on 4/4.

Garbage that gutshotted a straight or backdoored a flush, also a possibility considering he called twice then popped the river, might indicate the flush got there.

My read here is probably a worse set, or possibly utter junk that completed some bizaare backdoor draw.

I think you lose here <25% of the time. AA seems very unlikely from someone with 50% PFR and I don't see two pair not popping you on the turn to defend vs kickers/straight/flush possibilities. You beat all other hands, I'd predict he has a set here.

Doesn't a set fit the same category as two pair where he would very likely be raising the turn with them?

Do you think he calls a shove on the river with anything I have beat (straight, flush) except for a smaller set?

[WotaWaster]

Originally Posted by BrandonPL

Doesn't a set fit the same category as two pair where he would very likely be raising the turn with them?

Do you think he calls a shove on the river with anything I have beat (straight, flush) except for a smaller set?

Yes. I wasnt at the table but based on the read you give I don't think he folds a flush.

[rip32raptors]

what happened?

[BrandonPL]

BrandonPL calls $181
*** SHOW DOWN ***
DoctorZcali shows [Kh 3h] a flush, Ace high
BrandonPL shows [6d 6s] a full house, Sixes full of Aces
BrandonPL wins the pot ($579) with a full house, Sixes full of Aces
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $582 | Rake $3
Board: [Ac 6h 4d 5h Ah]
Seat 1: DoctorZcali showed [Kh 3h] and lost with a flush, Ace high
Seat 2: augustwest11 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: billycon didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: BrandonPL showed [6d 6s] and won ($579) with a full house, Sixes full of Aces
Seat 5: ibsurfinweb didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: Dino21Might (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: apparatchik (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 8: bmb013 (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 9: Tx_WaterBoy didn't bet (folded)


During the hand I don't think I was thinking it through well because I was in another few big pots also. I really should have re-raised.

[herschelw]

must shove here.

[The Real DeCoy]

Originally Posted by herschelw

must shove here.

Sure come in after he posts the results and look like a king...I get it

[rip32raptors]

i bet you he has Kx hearts... lol

i think just a flat here is ok... A6 A5 A4 AA all beat you here..... all limp-able hands
so ya i dunno
im a noob when it comes to cash anyways