Is folding a bad play here.

pokernewf69 · February 13th, 2008, 06:22 PM

This situation drives me nuts, i know most people say to shove in this situation.

I was gonna lay this down i even called his hand, but of course i changed my mind (like an idiot). sigh

Would anybody else lay this down in this spot, it seems like every time i push they have KK or AA, if i dont push and someone else calls they will have AQ or 88.

Personally i think laying it down is probably the better option.

PokerStars Game #15259803321: Tournament #77303533, $3.00+$0.25 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2008/02/13 - 13:01:33 (ET)
Table '77303533 5' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: Eschbo80 (3373 in chips)
Seat 2: zittel (1295 in chips)
Seat 3: boati111 (6987 in chips)
Seat 4: pokernewf69 (2983 in chips)
Seat 7: darcgbbs (6210 in chips)
Seat 8: SmArT gUy92 (3120 in chips)
Seat 9: tranquilo76 (8462 in chips)
Eschbo80: posts the ante 50
zittel: posts the ante 50
boati111: posts the ante 50
pokernewf69: posts the ante 50
darcgbbs: posts the ante 50
SmArT gUy92: posts the ante 50
tranquilo76: posts the ante 50
Eschbo80: posts small blind 300
zittel: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to pokernewf69 [Kc As]
boati111: raises 600 to 1200
pokernewf69: raises 1733 to 2933 and is all-in
darcgbbs: folds
SmArT gUy92: folds
tranquilo76: folds
Eschbo80: folds
zittel: folds
boati111: calls 1733
*** FLOP *** [7d 6h 9s]
*** TURN *** [7d 6h 9s] [3s]
*** RIVER *** [7d 6h 9s 3s] [Kd]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
boati111: shows [Kh Ks] (three of a kind, Kings)
pokernewf69: shows [Kc As] (a pair of Kings)
boati111 collected 7116 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 7116 | Rake 0
Board [7d 6h 9s 3s Kd]
Seat 1: Eschbo80 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: zittel (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: boati111 showed [Kh Ks] and won (7116) with three of a kind, Kings
Seat 4: pokernewf69 showed [Kc As] and lost with a pair of Kings
Seat 7: darcgbbs folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: SmArT gUy92 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: tranquilo76 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

ChestersDad · February 13th, 2008, 07:20 PM

is this a 45 FT? if so, you are already ITM then and u have AK with 5x BB, shove every time

you cannot narrow his range to AA and KK only, he would raise a lot more hands, if you ever wanna win this, u must shove every time imo

andremcosta · February 13th, 2008, 07:23 PM

I would never lay down at this spot. You have only 2900 chips with 300/600 and 50 ante. This means M<2. Unless you are desperate to cash any money and the game is in the bubble with someone close to go away you can't fold AK with a tiny stack. Cold call ing makes no sense.

Don't let yourself with less than 3 times the initial pot size without a very strong reason.

Even with 5000 chips it would be a no-brainer.

pokernewf69 · February 13th, 2008, 08:54 PM

in this case there were 13 left in a 45 man, i knew i needed to chip up but was pretty sure this guy had AA or KK judging by how he had been playing.

i know its a +ev push so i pushed it anyway.

i was just wondering if a case could be made for laying it down against a min raise when u have a read and are pretty sure he has a monster?

NateTrib · February 13th, 2008, 08:56 PM

have to shove here 100% of the time

pokernewf69 · February 13th, 2008, 08:57 PM

my thinking in this case was even tho i was pretty sure i was behind, my stack was short with large blinds bearing down on me so it was likely i was gonna have to push a lesser hand within next few hands anyway.

pokernewf69 · February 13th, 2008, 09:05 PM

guess i am just starting to second guess myself, been running terrible and am making what i think are good plays and never getting rewarded.

this hand seems to be on instant replay because i have had similar stack sizes at this point and faced UTG like this raises in so many games lately with AK, KK, QQ. I constantly push these hands only to hit AA KK or AK cracking my KK or QQ.

I guess its just varience or bad luck, but it does have me questioning UTG limps much more often when down to final 2 tables.

luvmecuzimgood · February 13th, 2008, 10:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pokernewf69

guess i am just starting to second guess myself, been running terrible and am making what i think are good plays and never getting rewarded.

this hand seems to be on instant replay because i have had similar stack sizes at this point and faced UTG like this raises in so many games lately with AK, KK, QQ. I constantly push these hands only to hit AA KK or AK cracking my KK or QQ.

I guess its just varience or bad luck, but it does have me questioning UTG limps much more often when down to final 2 tables.

You can't justify laying this down in this situation, you got beat, but you had to push. Don't change the way you play just because of variance. If you're a winning player then you'll pull out of it

andremcosta · February 13th, 2008, 10:10 PM

Just a question. You say you were almost sure he had KK or AA. Were you using Poker Tracker(PT)? How many hands have you played with him before?

I would never fold, but when you consider to fold AK with less than 10bb you have to be good reasons for that.

Having stats about him you can think about what stack do you need to fold AKo in a spot similar to this without making a mistake. This is very more interesting than thinking only about this hand, that is a no-brainer.

First, you look at his Pre flop raise %, and after that start to think what hands you would push for each stack you have. This helps to improve your game a lot.

PartTimePoker · February 13th, 2008, 10:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pokernewf69

Would anybody else lay this down in this spot, it seems like every time i push they have KK or AA, if i dont push and someone else calls they will have AQ or 88.

obviously you don't really believe that, right?

this is an easy shove unless you have a dead read on your opponent as a brutally tight player. personally, someone would have to pretty much show me that they had a K in their hand before i'd fold here.

i personally see a lot of people raising small UTG very weakly, as it's a cheap way to represent strength when you have a middle-sized stack. however, even if opp is ONLY doing this with JJ+ and AKs+, you're still only a 60 / 40 dog. add AQ and 10 10 and you're 55 / 45.

with the 1200 already in the middle and 2900 in my stack (and blinds fast approaching), i'd happy take a 60/40. i suspect you're probably a small favorite over the typical range.

Acid Hound · February 13th, 2008, 10:25 PM

Absolutely no chance in hell I would ever ever fold here. You cant be 100% certain or even like 70% certain he has AA or KK. snap call and happy about it

pokernewf69 · February 13th, 2008, 11:41 PM

thanks guy's i've been pushing in these situations consistently and getting beat, was just doubting myself because of the results being consistently BAD

reassuring to know that everyone thinks pushing is the right play, i was beginning to wonder