top set early and i want to puke

[sizzlinbetta]

wtf do u do here explain why...
he said he had 78

**** **** ****

PokerStars Game #15275788213: Tournament #77384104, $12+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2008/02/14 - 02:30:55 (ET)
Table '77384104 1' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: sizzlinbetta (1610 in chips)
Seat 2: akim30 (1380 in chips)
Seat 3: mrjrk (1660 in chips)
Seat 4: Spiderattack (1400 in chips)
Seat 5: thelemon (1480 in chips)
Seat 6: Ball1010 (1470 in chips)
mrjrk: posts small blind 10
Spiderattack: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to sizzlinbetta [9h 9c]
thelemon: calls 20
Ball1010: calls 20
sizzlinbetta: calls 20
akim30: folds
mrjrk: folds
Spiderattack: checks
*** FLOP *** [9s 8h 7h]
Spiderattack: bets 60
thelemon: calls 60
Ball1010: calls 60
sizzlinbetta: raises 180 to 240
Spiderattack: calls 180
thelemon: calls 180
Ball1010: calls 180
*** TURN *** [9s 8h 7h] [3d]
Spiderattack: bets 1140 and is all-in
thelemon: folds
Ball1010: folds
sizzlinbetta: folds
Spiderattack collected 1050 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1050 | Rake 0
Board [9s 8h 7h 3d]
Seat 1: sizzlinbetta folded on the Turn
Seat 2: akim30 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: mrjrk (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: Spiderattack (big blind) collected (1050)
Seat 5: thelemon folded on the Turn
Seat 6: Ball1010 folded on the Turn

[NateTrib]

god thats rough, i put him on a straight and fold

[sizzlinbetta]

Originally Posted by NateTrib

god thats rough, i put him on a straight and fold

yea...if he shoves that flop i think i snap call and pray where as when he flat calls it scares me more that he had like j/10 and flopped the nuts and wanted to build the pot but figuring that turn doesn't hurt my 3 betting hands he jams there...honestly i just don't even know what do make of that situiaton

[ChestersDad]

I call that all day long -- why would he shove the nuts there? I think putting him on JT or 56 is way too narrow a range -- he could have a lower set, T9, a flush draw, 2 pair -- the shove looks like he's scared to get outdrawn

[bustenya!]

fold?? at best he hit straight. but you still have outs. worth the risk i think...
...i snap call and whatever happens, happens.

[Trashtalker961]

I think it is an easy call....and think if you make this call 100 times at this level...you are ahead 90 of the 100 times!

[andremcosta]

I think this fold is completely tight weak. He can shove J9, 88, 77, 98, 97, 87, 33, any split pair with flush draw.

The only hands that put you in trouble are T6, JT, 56.

Even against that you have 10 outs for the river. Considering he has you beat on the turn, you have almost 23% equity.

I don't fold it even with a gun on my head.

[Matixboy]

Originally Posted by ChestersDad

I call that all day long -- why would he shove the nuts there? I think putting him on JT or 56 is way too narrow a range -- he could have a lower set, T9, a flush draw, 2 pair -- the shove looks like he's scared to get outdrawn

Originally Posted by Trashtalker961

I think it is an easy call....and think if you make this call 100 times at this level...you are ahead 90 of the 100 times!

Originally Posted by andremcosta

I think this fold is completely tight weak. He can shove J9, 88, 77, 98, 97, 87, 33, any split pair with flush draw.

The only hands that put you in trouble are T6, JT, 56.

Even against that you have 10 outs for the river. Considering he has you beat on the turn, you have almost 23% equity.

I don't fold it even with a gun on my head.

100% agree with all these guys. snap it every time

[sizzlinbetta]

Originally Posted by andremcosta

I think this fold is completely tight weak. He can shove J9, 88, 77, 98, 97, 87, 33, any split pair with flush draw.

The only hands that put you in trouble are T6, JT, 56.

Even against that you have 10 outs for the river. Considering he has you beat on the turn, you have almost 23% equity.

I don't fold it even with a gun on my head.

5 handed for some1 to flop a straight isn't that all unlinkely
j/9 is 10x's less likely than j/10

i.e. case 9
set over set occur insane small %'s of the time

33 isn't even close to reasonable

a flushdraw is not moving this turn

seriously i can't disagree more here

we're as deep as we can be and this is about the only time you can make a good laydown, not that it was

but i'd say he's gonna

show me a straight 50%+
pair + striaghtdraw 20%
pair + fd 20%
2 pair 9%
set 1%

[sizzlinbetta]

Originally Posted by sizzlinbetta

5 handed for some1 to flop a straight isn't that all unlinkely
j/9 is 10x's less likely than j/10

i.e. case 9
set over set occur insane small %'s of the time

33 isn't even close to reasonable

a flushdraw is not moving this turn

seriously i can't disagree more here

we're as deep as we can be and this is about the only time you can make a good laydown, not that it was

but i'd say he's gonna

show me a straight 50%+
pair + striaghtdraw 20%
pair + fd 20%
2 pair 9%
set 1%

also realize no1 else gets involved typically hands w/ j/10, or 6 will call this early...so those are the most live cards and most logical combos for him to have

[chimp__greg]

callin

[cubbies4life]

easy call imo

[Acid Hound]

ya Im snap calling. Makes it awkward that there are so many people in the hand but I am just not folding, you are crushing his range imo... and everyone elses

[rounder2413]

snizzap

[NateTrib]

Originally Posted by sizzlinbetta

5 handed for some1 to flop a straight isn't that all unlinkely
j/9 is 10x's less likely than j/10

i.e. case 9
set over set occur insane small %'s of the time

33 isn't even close to reasonable

a flushdraw is not moving this turn

seriously i can't disagree more here

we're as deep as we can be and this is about the only time you can make a good laydown, not that it was

but i'd say he's gonna

show me a straight 50%+
pair + striaghtdraw 20%
pair + fd 20%
2 pair 9%
set 1%

I agree that it's a good lay down, but I actualy put him on 56 or 6T (note he was in the BB so he could have anything) I dont think he shoves the turn with JT.

[andremcosta]

Originally Posted by sizzlinbetta

5 handed for some1 to flop a straight isn't that all unlinkely
j/9 is 10x's less likely than j/10

i.e. case 9
set over set occur insane small %'s of the time

33 isn't even close to reasonable

a flushdraw is not moving this turn

seriously i can't disagree more here

we're as deep as we can be and this is about the only time you can make a good laydown, not that it was

but i'd say he's gonna

show me a straight 50%+
pair + striaghtdraw 20%
pair + fd 20%
2 pair 9%
set 1%

33 is not reasonable, I agree. I thought about that some minutes after posting, but decided not editing.

Considering only 1% chance of set is wrong imo because 1% is probably the chance that someone has a set given that you have one. In these cases where strenght is shown I think you can see a set more often.

In fact, considering the range you are giving him, I think you better folding, but I'm not seeing a straight 50% of the time.

Since he was in the BB you have to consider almost everything as a starting hand except for monsters. So, you are basing your reads only on his lead bet, call and push.

I think lots of players would play two pair very strong. Also, lots of them would not slowplay a straight against 3 players on a dangerous flop.

With the range you believe he has, you are just a little better than even considering cEV, so your fold is good.

But I think you are putting very low values for two pair and botton set. I would say at least 15% for two pair and a little less than 5% for a set.

[Magic_JD]

Bad fold IMO....

The str8 is a possiblity obv, but more times than not, you win the hand, chipping up big.....Very likely he has 2 pair and is scared of the FD/Str8 that someone could be drawing to and wants to get everyone out of the pot....

Small set is also likely....You're prolly ahead like 80% of the time there i think

[Acid Hound]

^^ I think 80% is WAAY too much. I say like 60-70% but ur gonna fill up like 17% of the time you are behind.