on the bubble AKs 10 man sng????

draw2aflush · February 19th, 2008, 09:43 PM

OK we have med. stack and there is 1 super SS after BB he has 340 behind and another smallish stack. The raiser BIG stack has been ultra aggressive and knowledgable and knows I should fold almost every hand here.

What is the correct play here?

PokerStars Game #15403237203: Tournament #77969632, $3.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2008/02/19 - 16:32:24 (ET)
Table '77969632 1' 10-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 3: anselm83 (6600 in chips)
Seat 6: draw2aflush (2860 in chips)
Seat 8: davies88 (1040 in chips)
Seat 10: loosechain (4500 in chips)
anselm83: posts the ante 50
draw2aflush: posts the ante 50
davies88: posts the ante 50
loosechain: posts the ante 50
draw2aflush: posts small blind 300
davies88: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to draw2aflush [Ac Kc]
loosechain: folds
anselm83: raises 5950 to 6550 and is all-in
draw2aflush: ??????

bnorris85 · February 19th, 2008, 09:52 PM

I call, but I think most will say fold.

The blinds are 300/600 and you have a great opportunity to pick up some valuable chips to win the sng. In most cases this is a fold but with the top top hands I call. I would much rather have a better chance at 1st than coming in 3rd. Thats just me.

I am probably wrong tho.

losttrem · February 19th, 2008, 09:53 PM

bnorris85 · February 19th, 2008, 09:58 PM

Then again you said that he has been ultra agressive, knowing that he has been shoving suited connectors and gappers as well as other speculative hands. So it is very likely that you will be calling with only a slight advantage.

I guess that is making me lean to fold.

Oh well I guess that is why I just play them, not try to think about them. lol

bnorris85 · February 19th, 2008, 10:01 PM

bnorris85 204 $4.55 $16 16% $928 - PokerStars E9-9 Spd=T
bnorris85 471 $2.53 $19 13% $1,190 - FullTilt E9-9 Spd=T

ok stats, no clue what he is doing lol

Acid Hound · February 19th, 2008, 10:01 PM

you just cant call... not with these blinds and the stack to your left

losttrem · February 19th, 2008, 10:02 PM

checked the numbers with SNG Wiz. Assuming BB always folds when you call except for when he has QQ+, you need to have the big stack pushing over 90% here to make a call +ev.

Even if he is pushing 100% AKs is close. AKo would be a fold no matter what.

draw2aflush · February 19th, 2008, 10:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by losttrem

checked the numbers with SNG Wiz. Assuming BB always folds when you call except for when he has QQ+, you need to have the big stack pushing over 90% here to make a call +ev.

Even if he is pushing 100% AKs is close. AKo would be a fold no matter what.

sry, what do you mean by 90%. ?

losttrem · February 19th, 2008, 10:08 PM

90% of all hands there are

22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,92s+,82s+,72s+,62s+,5 2s+,42s+,32s,A2o+,K2o+,Q2o+,J2o+,T2o+,93o+,84o+,74 o+,64o+,53o+

draw2aflush · February 19th, 2008, 10:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bnorris85

bnorris85 204 $4.55 $16 16% $928 - PokerStars E9-9 Spd=T
bnorris85 471 $2.53 $19 13% $1,190 - FullTilt E9-9 Spd=T

ok stats, no clue what he is doing lol

ditto

draw2aflush 1,008$2 $6 19%$1,690 -PokerStars E9-10 G=H NoLim Spd=T

draw2aflush · February 19th, 2008, 10:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by losttrem

90% of all hands there are

22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,92s+,82s+,72s+,62s+,5 2s+,42s+,32s,A2o+,K2o+,Q2o+,J2o+,T2o+,93o+,84o+,74 o+,64o+,53o+

i thought that's what you meant. not sure he was doing that, but def. wouldn't be suprised.

so basically calling here is not a huge leak, but maybe a small 1. and if you fold AKs here do you also fold QQs and even KKs

i am slow sometimes so sry. so what edge do we need here to make this +EV call 70-30 and up?

this is another EZ ? for all you math wizs. Let's say you double up and your chances of getting 1st, 2nd or 3rd are?

1st - 60%
2nd - 30%
3rd - 10%

how often do we need to win this to make it +EV

terrible wording i apologize

Acid Hound · February 19th, 2008, 10:18 PM

why ask if you guys jus disregard opinions and establish you are good?

Acid Hound · February 19th, 2008, 10:20 PM

having pairs is so diff b/c your equity against hands like 68 becomes much greater so you can probably call QQ comfortably... doing too many things at once so cant run it but I'd imagine jacks is a better call than AKo. if he was shoving tighter then AK becomes more valuable like norris said because u will dominate him more often

draw2aflush · February 19th, 2008, 10:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Acid Hound

why ask if you guys jus disregard opinions and establish you are good?

i am not disregarding anyones opinions. i have just having fun with Bnorris throwing around my micro limit HOG

bnorris85 · February 19th, 2008, 10:45 PM

I wasn't trying to brag

I was just saying that I have achieved ok results not knowing what the **** I am supposed to do.

lol

Acid Hound · February 19th, 2008, 11:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bnorris85

I wasn't trying to brag

I was just saying that I have achieved ok results not knowing what the **** I am supposed to do.

lol

ok, apologies I misconstrued it

fact is you guys prob have better results from me who breaks their ass trying

lol

VincereEstTotum · February 20th, 2008, 10:22 PM

call, then win the tourney

Acid Hound · February 21st, 2008, 03:05 PM

Ok seeing as its bumped and Im at home... according to sngegt if he shoves ATC and you dont account for any skill advantage you can call 99+ and not AK. give him 60% and you can call JJ+. 34% and its KK and aces. You really cant call IMO...

gogzy · February 21st, 2008, 04:48 PM

ugh i hate to do it but with the small stack being in the bb i probably fold

if the ss calls and loses its money, if he folds he is basically all in on his small blind

i really hate folding that hand with that stack but i fold here and cringe when the small blind calls and doubles

Acid Hound · February 21st, 2008, 05:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gogzy

ugh i hate to do it but with the small stack being in the bb i probably fold

if the ss calls and loses its money, if he folds he is basically all in on his small blind

i really hate folding that hand with that stack but i fold here and cringe when the small blind calls and doubles

w/ AQ high lol