9 man sng bubble question

[tappingglass]

I dont have the HH but I remember seats and appox stack sizes.

blinds are 100/200

seat1 cutoff (1400 chips)
seat2 button (4500 chip) me
seat3 small b (1600 chips)
seat4 big b (6000 chips)

seat 3 posts sb
seat 4 posts bb

seat 2 dealt QQ

seat 1 folds

seat 2 ???

seat 4 has been playing correctly so far, shoving lots of the time, and the only time I raised 3x since 4 handed he insta shoved me (obv understands ICM and knew I would fold)

Am I supposed to fold QQ here? if i raise 3x and get shoved can I call?
If I shove what range can I expect bb to call with assuming he will be left with 1500 if he calls/loses and if he calls/wins he will be 10500 with a solid chance at winning.

since seat 1 folded I would imagine that the other short stack also will fold, so is shoving best? or just fold and wait for short stack to drop?

[draw2aflush]

at this stage, blinds 100-200 IMO you raise 4x bb to 800. If the BB comes over the top AI or RR it is an EZ call or shove

[ChestersDad]

i keep my standard raise of 3x BB and snap call a shove from the big stack

[cardsfan04]

QQ is too strong to fold to an ICM shove. AK is probably a fold, but it's been awhile since I played 9-man's consistently.

Also, if you play w/ this guy a lot, you should consider calling wide occasionally so he knows he can't just ICMjam you all the time. It might be -$EV for that SNG, but longterm it should pay off.

[Acid Hound]

Ya Im the same. ICM probably says you fold up to 1010 but Ive a suspicion that it says call JJ+. IMO anyway, im not folding here with QQ, but I would fold AK.

[tappingglass]

blinds are 100/200

seat1 cutoff (1400 chips)
seat2 button (4500 chip) me
seat3 small b (1600 chips)
seat4 big b (6000 chips)

seat 3 posts sb
seat 4 posts bb

seat 2 dealt QQ

seat 1 folds

seat 2 ???

I tend to agree with everyone who posted but when you break it down it gets kinda questionable, well at least to me it does...I am not a pro or anything..

If I 3X raise and he shoves and I call I am 68%/32% to win when he is holding either a suited ace or suited K with a rag. he has two unders I am 82%/18% and underpair 80%/20%.

I cant imagine a shove all to often from two unders, but K high or A high against a guy who seems to understand ICM and bubble play I can see.

so by folding I eliminate the possibility that I bubble (at least for now) and by shoving I eliminate the chance of him shoving with rags and getting lucky.

Obviously I would like to double up, but with the short stacks only having ~7 bb's I am fairly certain I will get ITM, and have a solid shot at 2nd.

I guess unless I run into AA or KK it is likely that the only other way I am getting it all in here is if he shoves me with a suited A or K high...and I am 32% to get KO'ed and make no money.

If my hand holds I will be big stack, but unless I wipe out the remaining field all I have really done is secure 2nd with a good chance at winning.

any one agree with this?? or think I am nuts??

In the actual game I raised 3X bb and got insta shoved like I expected, I called and he had K high..my hand held and I went on to win.

but afterwards I thought that I might have made a mistake, because I know when I am short...I love seeing the big stacks collide, and often wondered why they risk getting KO'ed AI preflop when they could wait for me to get blinded or have the big stack call my weak shoves...

according to ICM I have 32% equity before hand is dealt

if I lose I have zero

if I win I have 42% equity...

prize pool of $90 dollars that would be a difference of $9.00 in equity between folding and getting it all in and winning.

[RDTigger]

If he is making an effort to pressure around the bubble the last thing he wants to see is you push back.... Shove him and he will probably fold...

[ariganello]

I have seen Bigjoe2003 and Spacegravy do this a lot specially at the 100/200 level were jamming all in pre here will only get called by KK and AA by this big stack maybe maybe AK JJ unlikely though. Anyway I have seen these guy limp and shove to a raise or limp and play a pot. I dont recommend it but BIgjoe loves to limp big PP at this level were jamming is not the best move and ICM says if you raise 600 here you have to fold the QQ because of how much equity you have with the two smaller stacks. I did not put this into the ICM calulator but I can tell you from looking that the QQ is a fold when you raise to 600 and BB comes over.

[se7en]

in this case i'd probably raise to 800-1000 and discourage a shove from the BB
but as it was played out I'd call any shoves. AK or JJ and its leaning towards a fold

[420beats]

I say screw the math here.
raise the pot exactly 1600 is what id do.
this tyells the big stack that you want to go all in against either or both of the other stacks. if he still pushes all in after you tell him your hand id just fold and let him go against the small stacks since nothin will make him fold if that doesnt.
ideally he folds and one of them call.

[bnorris85]

Raise and insta call.