18 man on bubble - horrible call.

[Vedder1980]

Ok i know this guy relitevely well. I knew he is shoving pretty much ATC i felt im ahead of his range by a decent margin and with the other players left i win this as we had 2 weak tight players with us.

I guess by icm it is a -ev play..

Discuss.

PokerStars Game #15638696049: Tournament #79154088, $15+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2008/02/29 - 15:21:39 (ET)
Table '79154088 1' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: silverrock1 (6597 in chips)
Seat 2: vedder1980 (5150 in chips)
Seat 7: jasonkobe (5733 in chips)
Seat 8: Cr34tive (1680 in chips)
Seat 9: [p]H.88888 (7840 in chips)
silverrock1: posts the ante 50
vedder1980: posts the ante 50
jasonkobe: posts the ante 50
Cr34tive: posts the ante 50
[p]H.88888: posts the ante 50
silverrock1: posts small blind 300
vedder1980: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to vedder1980 [Kc Qh]
jasonkobe: folds
Cr34tive: folds
[p]H.88888: folds
silverrock1: raises 5947 to 6547 and is all-in
vedder1980: calls 4500 and is all-in
*** FLOP *** [9d Tc 9s]
*** TURN *** [9d Tc 9s] [Ad]
silverrock1 said, "-----ev bro"
*** RIVER *** [9d Tc 9s Ad] [Ks]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
silverrock1: shows [2c Kd] (two pair, Kings and Nines)
vedder1980: shows [Kc Qh] (two pair, Kings and Nines)
silverrock1 collected 5225 from pot
vedder1980 collected 5225 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 10450 | Rake 0
Board [9d Tc 9s Ad Ks]
Seat 1: silverrock1 (small blind) showed [2c Kd] and won (5225) with two pair, Kings and Nines
Seat 2: vedder1980 (big blind) showed [Kc Qh] and won (5225) with two pair, Kings and Nines
Seat 7: jasonkobe folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Cr34tive folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: [p]H.88888 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

[tokeRJallDAY]

man this really close imo

if you have enough faith in your read, then calling here is okay given turbo structure imo.

against an unknown, or if i am less confident in my read, i am folding and waiting for a spot to maybe use fold equity to pick up chips.

[Vedder1980]

I was very confident in my read. I have played maybe 100-200 sngs against this guy, he is pretty good. He wasnt happy told me how against ATC i was -1% on icm. The main motivating factor is 2 of the remaining players i know 3 handed and HU are amazingly weak tight.

[Rob Plasky]

Tough spot, Like toker said, Im folding this to an unknown but against silverrock (being a regular) i might call knowing that hes shoving wide. Its close though

[mutigers5591]

i will call here vs regs...that spacegravy guy is playing 45 men turbos now and his range is the widest pushing range i have ever seen...honestly pushes i think are horrible pushing 23 offsut on the button with big stack when sb and bb both had about 9 m

[Vedder1980]

Originally Posted by mutigers5591

i will call here vs regs...that spacegravy guy is playing 45 men turbos now and his range is the widest pushing range i have ever seen...honestly pushes i think are horrible pushing 23 offsut on the button with big stack when sb and bb both had about 9 m

Interesting im about ready to take another small shot at the 27's.

Stu.

[draw2aflush]

**** ICM if your read is right and it was. nh sir

[Vedder1980]

I do think that if you play your whole game dictated by ICM and dont think about other players left etc then your missing out. In that game he was the only semi good player left and i was certain i was massive amount ahead of his almost atc range. If i can bust him and have a stack i think i win very often.

Im glad im not a donkey for feeling this way.

Stu.

[Acid Hound]

Originally Posted by Vedder1980

I do think that if you play your whole game dictated by ICM and dont think about other players left etc then your missing out. In that game he was the only semi good player left and i was certain i was massive amount ahead of his almost atc range. If i can bust him and have a stack i think i win very often.

Im glad im not a donkey for feeling this way.

Stu.

ICM is a guideline. Anyone can be a good player using ICM correctly, however what seperates the good and great are those players who know when to incorporate reads into ICM... I think its close but b/c of stacks. You are not desperate, I think you should fold b/c of the other guys going broke soon.

Lemme put it this way, he will have Ax or even have you dominated a certain percent of the time no matter how wide he is shoving. Obv he is shoving a LOT of hands so you will only be ~63/37 a good portion of the time, fliping with pockets etc. This is fine ITM or of the other stacks were bigger/yours shorter etc but your edge is not that great so I think its just barely a fold... A10s+,AJo+, 88+

[Vedder1980]

Originally Posted by Acid Hound

ICM is a guideline. Anyone can be a good player using ICM correctly, however what seperates the good and great are those players who know when to incorporate reads into ICM... I think its close but b/c of stacks. You are not desperate, I think you should fold b/c of the other guys going broke soon.

Lemme put it this way, he will have Ax or even have you dominated a certain percent of the time no matter how wide he is shoving. Obv he is shoving a LOT of hands so you will only be ~63/37 a good portion of the time, fliping with pockets etc. This is fine ITM or of the other stacks were bigger/yours shorter etc but your edge is not that great so I think its just barely a fold... A10s+,AJo+, 88+

While i understand your reasoning i do want to comment that i think your range to call him is way too tight. Ive played with silver so many times and like i say he is pushing ATC. He also likes to get a little tricky in these spots if he has a monster hand i think i can discount aa kk qq from his range as well as a few other hands i know he is playing differantly.

There is another factor as well i havent gone into - last night after this hand i ran into him about another 5-6 times and twice had him sat on my right approaching the bubble. Ive had to ammend my notes as he stopped pushing atc into my bb - if this trend continues its going to make my bubble play against a regular a lot easier in future.

I also learned from one of your threads about how bad it is to bubble 9 mans. I think the more entrants in a SNG the less of a factor the dreaded bubble becomes - say in a 45 man i hardly even look at it and play to chip up. In an 18 man it is still a decent factor but again i think the risk/reward %'s change. Its one of the reasons you'll never find me playing 9 mans - im too much of a hero/donkey Im 100% not saying your wrong just that in this instance im happy with that call.

Stu.

[mutigers5591]

Originally Posted by Acid Hound

ICM is a guideline. Anyone can be a good player using ICM correctly, however what seperates the good and great are those players who know when to incorporate reads into ICM... I think its close but b/c of stacks. You are not desperate, I think you should fold b/c of the other guys going broke soon.

Lemme put it this way, he will have Ax or even have you dominated a certain percent of the time no matter how wide he is shoving. Obv he is shoving a LOT of hands so you will only be ~63/37 a good portion of the time, fliping with pockets etc. This is fine ITM or of the other stacks were bigger/yours shorter etc but your edge is not that great so I think its just barely a fold... A10s+,AJo+, 88+

you make some good points but that last range is way way too tight

[rmcnally]

i dont want to sound dumb, but what is icm

[Vedder1980]

Originally Posted by rmcnally

i dont want to sound dumb, but what is icm

Not at all - its why we have the strat section sir. ICM is a system which in sng will equate your chipstack to the equity of the prizepool - you can input ranges into it and it will tell you if certain push/calls are + or - ev in and around money bubbles. put simply putting your chips in a 3-1 fav on a bubble will quite often in a sng be -ev.

Have a look here http://www.chillin411.com/icmcalc.php Not a very good icm calculator but should give you an idea, lol.

[rmcnally]

is there any easier way to calc. icm without one of those calculators?

[Vedder1980]

The easiest way is to play with the calculators when your not playing and get a decent 'feel' for what ranges you want to be push/folding with - sounds boring but doing it will improve you SNG results no end. You will also see what your better opponents are thinking.

[R u lN ?]

Good post! Im a little confused about some of the comments, especially since it seems that those commenting are fairly competent. There is no ICM if you dont use reads. The two go hand in hand. Figuring out your calling range using the ICM REQUIRES that you give your opponent a range. To me its like this, If you arent real sure about the range you are giving your opponent then the "close calls" that arise are clear folds (because you arent certain of the range you are giving them, it will never be a HUGE mistake to fold.) If you are certain that this player will push ATC here, (which I would agree with) then there are no close calls. Its either +EV or -EV. I havent worked it out myself, but if you give him a range of ATC and it is -1% then you fold. If it is +1% then you call. Thats all there is to it. The fact that you will most likely win the whole SNG if you win that hand is IRRELEVANT! The ICM takes that fact into account, and it shouldnt be an extra "incentive" on making a decision. It doesnt turn a slightly -EV play into a positive one, because it is already factored in when you use the ICM. Good luck yall and have fun!

[Vedder1980]

Originally Posted by R u lN ?

Good post! Im a little confused about some of the comments, especially since it seems that those commenting are fairly competent. There is no ICM if you dont use reads. The two go hand in hand. Figuring out your calling range using the ICM REQUIRES that you give your opponent a range. To me its like this, If you arent real sure about the range you are giving your opponent then the "close calls" that arise are clear folds (because you arent certain of the range you are giving them, it will never be a HUGE mistake to fold.) If you are certain that this player will push ATC here, (which I would agree with) then there are no close calls. Its either +EV or -EV. I havent worked it out myself, but if you give him a range of ATC and it is -1% then you fold. If it is +1% then you call. Thats all there is to it. The fact that you will most likely win the whole SNG if you win that hand is IRRELEVANT! The ICM takes that fact into account, and it shouldnt be an extra "incentive" on making a decision. It doesnt turn a slightly -EV play into a positive one, because it is already factored in when you use the ICM. Good luck yall and have fun!

I can see where your coming from but you seem to think ICM does a lot more than it does. ICM will not factor in that of the 5 remaining player 3 are known (notes over many 18 mans) weak tight players ITM. That if i take silver out there i am in a position where without sounding arrogant i am very unlikely to not get HU and almost as unlikely not to win. Also silverocks changing of the hands he is willing to push into my BB from this game forward has changed - something that already a couple of times has assisted me enter the money when in a worse spot than this.

I think there is a point where people can put all of there play into a calculation system and take out the very basis of what poker is. I guess i make a lot of -ev plays but if thats the case why are my sng stats so +.

[Acid Hound]

Originally Posted by Vedder1980

While i understand your reasoning i do want to comment that i think your range to call him is way too tight. Ive played with silver so many times and like i say he is pushing ATC. He also likes to get a little tricky in these spots if he has a monster hand i think i can discount aa kk qq from his range as well as a few other hands i know he is playing differantly.

There is another factor as well i havent gone into - last night after this hand i ran into him about another 5-6 times and twice had him sat on my right approaching the bubble. Ive had to ammend my notes as he stopped pushing atc into my bb - if this trend continues its going to make my bubble play against a regular a lot easier in future.

I also learned from one of your threads about how bad it is to bubble 9 mans. I think the more entrants in a SNG the less of a factor the dreaded bubble becomes - say in a 45 man i hardly even look at it and play to chip up. In an 18 man it is still a decent factor but again i think the risk/reward %'s change. Its one of the reasons you'll never find me playing 9 mans - im too much of a hero/donkey Im 100% not saying your wrong just that in this instance im happy with that call.

Stu.

Dontcha love poker, the regs Im playing against are now adjusting their ranges against me b/c they know Im somewhat capable so its becoming much more of a mind game lol

I would agree that ICM becomes less important the more players are in b/c you need to aim for first in bigger tourneys. Not in 9 mans tho.

Anyway, you guys got me thinking, I decided to run it. Ok I cant run it perfectly b/c I only have a 9 man calc. I usually make the best ICM move I can in my games but I think I said above I would bend this a little bit given the read. I left out the guy with ~5k to try balance it (b/c 9 mans pay 3, not 4) so it wont be perfectly accurate. Anyway, SB pushing ATC, you need 99+ and no unpaired cards. You technically cannot call AKs here. Now of course thats b/c AK doesn perform as well against a looser range b/c it dominates less. Again, I would breal this for the player given read, I would consider KQ definitely but if I think it through, I fold...

lol, so basically I feel more convinced my original range is good given 1600 guy is in the SB next and you can shove him so he def wont get a walk. You can disagree and it wouldn't be bad to call but IMO, folding is optimal... barely


"Im 100% not saying your wrong just that in this instance im happy with that call."

Occasionally I make redic loose calls against regs to make a point and make sure I don get run over in future so thats fine. I was just giving what is IMO the optimal play

[Vedder1980]

Thanks - athough i think a 18 man calc would give you a much looser range you are prob correct. Silver put it through one and said against atc it was a -1% play (
thinking he used sngtools)

Im happy with the call in that spot but also that it may not be optimal if that makes sense.

[Acid Hound]

Originally Posted by R u lN ?

Good post! Im a little confused about some of the comments, especially since it seems that those commenting are fairly competent. There is no ICM if you dont use reads. The two go hand in hand. Figuring out your calling range using the ICM REQUIRES that you give your opponent a range. To me its like this, If you arent real sure about the range you are giving your opponent then the "close calls" that arise are clear folds (because you arent certain of the range you are giving them, it will never be a HUGE mistake to fold.) If you are certain that this player will push ATC here, (which I would agree with) then there are no close calls. Its either +EV or -EV. I havent worked it out myself, but if you give him a range of ATC and it is -1% then you fold. If it is +1% then you call. Thats all there is to it. The fact that you will most likely win the whole SNG if you win that hand is IRRELEVANT! The ICM takes that fact into account, and it shouldnt be an extra "incentive" on making a decision. It doesnt turn a slightly -EV play into a positive one, because it is already factored in when you use the ICM. Good luck yall and have fun!

While I agree with what you are saying in principal, you dont account for the fact that in poker, there is no eternal right or wrong. No "always correct" play. You cant say something is definitively right or wrong. It is sometimes better to take a -EV call or shove to gain +EV in the future. Gigabet theory I think its called... So I think you shouldnt say its a def call or a def fold